Powered By Blogger

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Quiet period!!

Well after the past week to two weeks has been really crazy we come to a quite period. This unfortunately does not want to seem to last too long. We are headed for another stormy period as we get to the end of february. It looks like we still have the blocky pattern in the atlantic. The only thing we have to watch out for is the PNA at the time we may need to watch, 22nd -26th, it looks around neutral and even slightly negative. We will see how this evolves and changes but that would be the only deterant. As always we have to watch out for the dreaded PV.

After getting all this snow many of us would not mind the break.

i will have more as time goes on.
Thanks and have a great day everyone!

Wednesday, February 10, 2010







Some snow pics...







we are around 13-14" right now and the flakes are about the size of dimes and pennies and really coming down.



Sunday, February 7, 2010

Feb 9-11th snowstorm


Now this is just my preliminary map for the storm.

Light blue: T-2"
Blue: 2-5"
Darker Blue 5-9"
Darkest Blue: 9"+

Areas of NJ (southern) ,LI, and Cape will deal with mixing issues so i may have to cut those totals. But this is what im thinking as of now and i will post more on this storm later.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Feb 5-8th snowstorm

Sorry folks... if you read... that i have not been keeping on this! I have been busy with school. So without further adieu.


I have done my map for this storm. Now hopefully you all can see where there arrows are pointing to. Not specific locations but rather the areas of color for totals. Some will see that white blob well that is no fluke i put it there to signify that i believe that area has the greatest potential to get close to 2' of snow!
Now remember folks we need to remind ourselves of ratios. Ratios in the northern half of the totals will be around 15:1 tops. That is why i bumped up totals for that area as when the precip enters that area it may start off dry but quickly moisten up. I also expect a little northward trend with models later on. Ratios gets lower and lower as you get towards the coast. They should be on the order of 12:1 to 10:1 for areas of SE PA north and west of philly central nj and west of the major cities in Baltimore/DC areas. Now as we get closer to the eastern shore SNJ and DE the ratios plummet down. on the order of 10:1 or even 8:1 This is a heavy glopping wet snow that will plaster the region!
Folks please please be careful in these areas as the winds will also be a factor here on the order of 35-45mph sustained at times and gust from 40-60mph. Areas NW of here expect 25-35mph winds gusts up to 40+mph. This will take down trees and powerlines. So if you can to avoid damage brush any snow you can off the trees at your height and if you can your house tops so they do not cave in!
Just be very careful out there and also i would not be suprised if some areas have blizzard conditions if not blizzard warnings!
Stay safe!

Friday, January 29, 2010

An unfortunate event... looks at possibly middle of next week?

Well as most north of the mason-dixon line look towards the south on the radar we see a nicely developing storm. Unfotunately, due to the placement of the PV being to far west and the ridge out in the atlantic not allowing the stream flow to be NE (actually is due east) the storm is unable to come up the coast and affect many. The if only's:
-If only this cold air held off a little longer we could have possibly seen a better chance of a storm coming up the coast.
-If only the PV was just slightly further east and weaker
-If only the ridge in the atlantic was stronger
-If only the storm really got stronger and was further north.

Ohwell you can't have all of them! Many are above average and should be happy for that. Yes i know there are some out there snow starved but it eventually comes around.

Alright well looking towards the future it will be bitterly cold for the rest of today into saturday and early sunday. Sunday temps look to warm slightly higher leading to temps during the week to remain at or just above/below freezing. Typical winter average weather for this area. As far as mid week goes we have storm that is currently spinning up in the pac that looks pretty energetic. This may end up being like the last clipper in the beginning of january but there could be two differences.
1. This could end being slightly further south.
2. This might also obtain more moisture via the GOM and atlantic than the last one.

As of now most of us know nothing is even close to being set in stone! So watch whats happens with this one. The teleconnections failed me with this storm occuring now. As they printed out a +PNA -NAO and -AO the only one that occured was the negative AO the others have flatlined in neutral. So looking at teleconnections 5 days in advance can change and had for me. I would watch the upper level dynamics on the models say around 300mb and 500mb levels to get a good idea of what is going on. Those usually point what will happen and the surface reflections catch up to what is being shown aloft.

Have fun and stay tuned!

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Hope your ready for some rain!

Here we go folks another lovely Midwest/ Western GLC storm! This will of course be an all rain event as the warm front surges north many areas can expect highs around 50-60 degrees. To go along with this the models have shown a healthy dose of rain, along the lines of 1.5-2.5" for many areas of PA, NJ, SE NY, and MD. As this area of rain pushes east an artic surge is poised to enter the picture. But hey there may be a suprise at the end of this storm. As the cold front passes through the region not only will the upper air temps (850, 700, and 500mb) crash but surface temps take a tumble. If any leftover precip is still around it is quite possible some areas of Central and eastern PA as well as areas of central and eastern NY into New England could see a quick changeover or mix of snow. Nothing will accumulate from this but this should be an indicator of how cold this blast will be. Back to winter we go!

I will post tomorrow on the possibilities with the storm next week and give you an update on the storm occuring.

Welcome!

This is the first time having my very own blog. I hope you all enjoy and get alot of use out of the websites and other useful information as well as my forecasts.